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Hezbollah destroys Israeli surveillance cameras along the Lebanese border_我的网站

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A | 　　随着全球农业供应链深处多重风险加速交织，华尔街投行近期正接二连三地发出重磅预警：一场跨度更长、波及更广的全球粮食危机风险已然悄然积聚，并即将迎来彻底爆发的“风暴时刻”。 BEIRUT -- Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group said Monday it has started destroying surveillance cameras on several Israeli army posts along the border as tension rose following the Israel-Hamas war that began Oct.7.Hezbollah’s military media arm released a video showing snipers shooting at and destroying surveillance cameras placed on five points along the Lebanon-Israel border including one outside the Israeli town of Metula.The militant group appears to want to prevent the Israeli army from monitoring movements on the Lebanese side of the border after days of fire exchange that left at least seven people dead, including four Hezbollah fighters, on the Lebanese side.Since the Oct. 7, attack by the Palestinian militant Hamas group on southern Israel that killed more than 1,400 Israeli civilians and troops, tension has been on the rise along the Lebanon-Israel border. Hezbollah fighters fired anti-tank missiles on Israeli army positions and Israeli troops shelled border areas on the Lebanese side of the border.Israel and Hezbollah are bitter enemies that fought a monthlong war in the summer of 2006 that ended in a draw. Israel considers the Iran-backed Shiite militant group its most serious immediate threat, estimating that Hezbollah has some 150,000 rockets and missiles aimed at Israel.There are concerns that the powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah could join the war with Israel and earlier this month, President Joe Biden warned other players in the Middle East not to join the conflict and has sent American warships to the region and vowed full support for Israel.Hezbollah legislator Hassan Fadlallah said Sunday that the group is ready for all possibilities adding, “we don’t want to reveal what the next step is.” He said Hezbollah’s next step “is tied to what is going on in Gaza.”French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna arrived in Beirut where she will meet officials to discuss border tensions.Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said the country’s politically-paralyzed government has been scrambling to ease tensions along its southern border with Israel and avoid dragging the tiny country into a new war.Earlier Monday, the Israeli military ordered people living in 28 communities near the Lebanese border to evacuate. The military order affects communities that are within 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) of the border.Hezbollah has said the increased strikes were a warning and don't mean the group has decided to go to war.The World Health Organization said Monday it has sent two shipments of medical supplies to Beirut in preparation for potential escalation along the Lebanon-Israel border.。　　上周，摩根大通分析师已发出了“明年或爆发全球粮食危机”的警示。而汇丰银行分析师在本周二的最新报告中亦敲响警钟，指出谷物供应趋紧、厄尔尼诺现象、海上航运要道受阻，以及由此引发的供应挤压，正推高谷物价格。　　汇丰银行主攻澳新地区及全球大宗商品的经济学家Jamie Culling在周二发布的研报《天气与战争推高食品价格》中指出，这种供应挤压已在现货市场显现。截至7月，涵盖小麦、玉米、大麦和稻米在内的谷物整体价格同比上涨了22%。　　“今年年初充足的供应和库存曾有助于抑制价格飙升，但这一缓冲现在正开始迅速耗尽，”Culling向客户发出警告。

B | 　　农业供应链面临多重冲击　　Culling指出，农业供应链正面临多重冲击，包括中东冲突的影响、近期俄乌战争的升级，以及极端天气事件——如北半球热浪和日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象。　　根据美国农业部(USDA)的最新预测，2026/27年度全球谷物产量预计将跌至低于消费量，这将是自2020/21年度以来的首次供需倒挂，也是自2006/07年度以来最大规模的供给缺口。　　随着作物单产下降，库销比正面临进一步收紧。　　农产品价格已出现上涨。

C | 谷物价格同比上涨22%，而可可和咖啡等部分“高档食品”的价格也大幅飙升。　　中东冲突已成为农产品市场的主要扰动因素。

D | 霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续制约着化肥和硫磺的供应，导致前端生产成本居高不下；而部分国家为应对供应紧张而实施的出口限制，进一步加剧了市场压力。　　俄乌冲突近期的升级则导致黑海航线的出货量骤降。

E | 该地区承担着全球近三分之一的小麦出口量和五分之一的化肥贸易量，在谷物收割正全面展开的关键节点，这构成了重大供应链隐患。此外，俄罗斯本土炼油厂受损也间接推高了柴油等能源成本。　　天气因素同样构成了巨大威胁：北半球热浪、日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象以及印度洋偶极子(IOD)呈正相位，都给农产品供应带来了下行风险。尽管历次厄尔尼诺对不同区域和作物的具体影响不尽相同，但普遍规律是导致作物减产、农价上浮。