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缓冲迅速耗尽！汇丰警告：新一轮全球粮食危机要来了_我的网站

方谬神探

一 | 　　随着全球农业供应链深处多重风险加速交织，华尔街投行近期正接二连三地发出重磅预警：一场跨度更长、波及更广的全球粮食危机风险已然悄然积聚，并即将迎来彻底爆发的“风暴时刻”。 Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said Wednesday that China and South Korea should demonstrate strategic vision and work to ensure the healthy, stable and sustainable development of bilateral relations. Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, made the remarks when meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun. Wang expressed hope that South Korea, based on its fundamental interests, pursues an independent foreign policy and develops relations with other countries in parallel without conflict. Wang said that since the end of last year, the top leaders of the two countries have successfully exchanged visits and reached an important consensus on the future development of China-South Korea relations, providing strategic guidance for the bilateral relationship. Ushering in the 34th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two sides, Wang said China is ready to work with South Korea to advance the China-South Korea strategic cooperative partnership to a new level. He noted that the two sides should maintain high-level exchanges. China and South Korea have a solid foundation of economic and trade cooperation, and have become a deeply integrated community of shared interests, said Wang, expressing hope that the two sides tap new areas of cooperation and growth in artificial intelligence, green transition, digital economy, high-end equipment and the silver economy, and accelerate the second phase of negotiations on the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement. The two sides should continue to promote exchanges in areas such as youth, media, sports, think tanks, and local governments, and work to further strengthen the public support and social foundation for bilateral relations, he said. Wang said China is ready to take its hosting of the 2026 APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting as an opportunity to work with all parties, including South Korea, to build an Asia-Pacific community, and inject new impetus into peace and development in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Cho Hyun said South Korea has consistently upheld the one-China policy it has followed since the establishment of diplomatic relations with China. He added that South Korea looks forward to maintaining close high-level exchanges with China, deepening exchanges and cooperation in areas such as economy and trade, high technology, artificial intelligence and youth, and accelerating the second phase of negotiations on the South Korea-China Free Trade Agreement, thus advancing the South Korea-China strategic cooperative partnership to a higher level. Speaking on the situation on the Korean Peninsula, Wang stressed that China has always been committed to playing a constructive role in promoting peace and stability on the peninsula. 。　　上周，摩根大通分析师已发出了“明年或爆发全球粮食危机”的警示。而汇丰银行分析师在本周二的最新报告中亦敲响警钟，指出谷物供应趋紧、厄尔尼诺现象、海上航运要道受阻，以及由此引发的供应挤压，正推高谷物价格。　　汇丰银行主攻澳新地区及全球大宗商品的经济学家Jamie Culling在周二发布的研报《天气与战争推高食品价格》中指出，这种供应挤压已在现货市场显现。截至7月，涵盖小麦、玉米、大麦和稻米在内的谷物整体价格同比上涨了22%。　　“今年年初充足的供应和库存曾有助于抑制价格飙升，但这一缓冲现在正开始迅速耗尽，”Culling向客户发出警告。　　农业供应链面临多重冲击　　Culling指出，农业供应链正面临多重冲击，包括中东冲突的影响、近期俄乌战争的升级，以及极端天气事件——如北半球热浪和日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象。　　根据美国农业部(USDA)的最新预测，2026/27年度全球谷物产量预计将跌至低于消费量，这将是自2020/21年度以来的首次供需倒挂，也是自2006/07年度以来最大规模的供给缺口。

二 | 　　随着作物单产下降，库销比正面临进一步收紧。

三 | 　　农产品价格已出现上涨。谷物价格同比上涨22%，而可可和咖啡等部分“高档食品”的价格也大幅飙升。　　中东冲突已成为农产品市场的主要扰动因素。霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续制约着化肥和硫磺的供应，导致前端生产成本居高不下；而部分国家为应对供应紧张而实施的出口限制，进一步加剧了市场压力。　　俄乌冲突近期的升级则导致黑海航线的出货量骤降。该地区承担着全球近三分之一的小麦出口量和五分之一的化肥贸易量，在谷物收割正全面展开的关键节点，这构成了重大供应链隐患。此外，俄罗斯本土炼油厂受损也间接推高了柴油等能源成本。　　天气因素同样构成了巨大威胁：北半球热浪、日益加剧的厄尔尼诺现象以及印度洋偶极子(IOD)呈正相位，都给农产品供应带来了下行风险。尽管历次厄尔尼诺对不同区域和作物的具体影响不尽相同，但普遍规律是导致作物减产、农价上浮。　　受天气相关风险影响，可可价格在过去几个月已飙升了50%，咖啡价格也随之上涨。天气风险还可能引发非线性连锁反应，例如更多病虫害疫情爆发。　　汇丰最后总结称，供给侧的剧烈波动，将继续主导农产品的价格走势。这意味着未来一段时间内，市场将面临平均价格更高、波动性更剧烈，以及全球粮食不安全状况进一步加剧的严峻挑战。